Entering the spring of March, the global steel market continued to push up the trend under the guidance of Asia and its Chinese market. As of March 8, the steel house's global steel benchmark price index of 116.5 points rose by 0.2% on a week-on-week basis (increase in the increase), up 1.3% month-on-month (same as before), down 6.3% month-on-month (decreased) It fell by 6.3% year-on-year (the decline was widening). Among them: the flat steel index was 108 points, up 0.3% on a week-on-week basis (the increase was expanded); the long product index was 125.5 points, up 0.2% on a week-on-week basis (the increase was expanded); the Asian index was 117.8 points, up 0.6% on a week-on-week basis (from flat to higher) . The China index in Asia was 120.1 points, up 0.6% on a week-on-week basis (the increase was wide); the Americas index was 139.9 points, which was flat on a week-on-week basis; the European index was 98.6 points, down 0.4% on a week-on-week basis (from ups and downs). Combined with the fundamentals forecast, the international steel market in the second half of March may continue to pick up slowly.
US steel capacity utilization has reached a new high in a decade. As of March 2 this week, the steel production in the Great Lakes region of the United States rose to 717,000 tons, an increase of 4.98% over the previous week, while the steel capacity utilization rate rose to the highest value in more than 10 years. The data shows that most of the steel in the Great Lakes region is produced near the south shore of Lake Michigan and near Porter County, which account for half of the US blast furnace capacity.
India has become the fastest growing market for stainless steel in the world. The Indian Stainless Steel Development Association recently stated that India has adopted global infrastructure standards to promote the use of stainless steel in construction and infrastructure. It is estimated that the total demand for stainless steel in the whole year will be about 3.6 million tons, making it the fastest growing market for stainless steel in the world.
The London Metal Exchange launched a hot rolled coil futures contract. On March 11, the London Metal Exchange launched seven new cash-settled futures contracts, including hot-rolled coils, alumina and metallic cobalt, to attract more business and improve the downside of falling profits.
Asian steel market: continue to rise. The steel benchmark price index of steel house in the region of 117.8 points increased by 0.6% on a week-on-week basis (increase in the increase), and the month-on-month increase was 1.4% (the increase was converging), and the month-on-year decline was 9.1% (the decline was convergent), down 10.9% year-on-year.
In terms of flat products: market prices continue to rise. In South Korea, Hyundai Steel recently raised its May heat roll cost plus freight rate (CFR) to $600/ton. Modern sources said that in March and April this year, steel mills have been raising their offers due to the increase in global steel demand after the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday. In addition, steel mills should also raise their product prices after the collapse of Brazilian mines caused the cost of raw materials such as iron ore to soar. In India, some insiders said that steel prices may have a rare third increase this month, perhaps on March 1, with an increase of about Rs 1,000/ton, which will achieve the total price of Indian steel in the last 30 days. The increase will reach Rs 2,750/ton, and the hot rolled steel price has risen to Rs 44,200/t after the latest round of price adjustment. Some industry officials said that such price increases are rare and have not occurred in the past eight years. Especially after India and global steel prices have weakened for three consecutive months, steel prices have recently ushered in a new round of rise, which is not easy. In addition, the Bank of India’s bankruptcy court approved on March 8 that global steel giant ArcelorMittal acquired debt-ridden Aisha Steel, which will likely end months of court battles, marking the Indian steel industry’s investment abroad. Officially open. Almost at the same time, JSW Steel and Deco International Trading Holdings signed a steel trade financing contract for a five-year prepayment and supply agreement. This will be the largest trade finance agreement for the Indian steel industry and will also facilitate the development of JSW Steel's expansion projects. In Japan, hot coil export prices were $530/tonne (FOB) and cold rolled coils were $610/tonne (FOB), both up $10/ton from the end of last month. The galvanized sheet rolls are $780/tonne (FOB) and the plate is $580/tonne (FOB), which is the same as before. As of March 11, the average export price of China's SS400 3-12mm hot rolled coil was 540 US dollars / ton (FOB), up 15 US dollars / ton from the beginning of the month. The average export price of SPCC 1.0mm cold-rolled coils was US$570/ton, and then increased by US$10/ton. DX51D+Z 1.0mm galvanized coil exports $ 610 / ton (FOB), up $ 30 / ton. In the same period, the ASEAN hot coil import price was 549 US dollars / ton (CFR), up 8 yuan.
In terms of long products: the market price has risen steadily. In Singapore, the price of rebar imports to Singapore remained generally stable. As of March 11, the reference price for the CFR import of rebar in the Southeast Asia region, which is mainly sold to Singapore resources, is still at $495-510/ton, unchanged from the end of last month. According to downstream buyers, most of the current quotes are at $510-515/tonne (CFR Singapore). Most resources come from Malaysia, Qatar and Turkey. Among them, the wire CFR quoted by Malaysian Union Steel to Singapore is US$510-520/ton. It is reported that Singapore buyers hope that the rebar CFR transaction price can be less than 500 US dollars / ton, 470-480 US dollars / ton offer or more to stimulate buyers' interest. Some traders said that most of the quotations in the Southeast Asian market came from China, but due to the bullish Chinese domestic market, Chinese exporters have recently increased their wire export offers. At present, the actual bargaining range of wire rods is generally in the range of 540-545 US dollars / ton (CFR Philippines), the seller's wire price range is 550-560 US dollars / ton (CFR Philippines). As of the 11th, the reference price of imported CFR for Southeast Asian wire rods (mainly from China for low-carbon nets sold to the Philippines and Vietnam) was US$530/ton, which remained generally stable. In Taiwan, the price of rebar in Fengxing Steel is NT$17,400/ton, and the price of profile is NT$19,900-20,100/ton, which is in line with the scrap price. At the beginning of March, the average export price of China's HRB400 20mm rebar was 520 US dollars / ton (FOB), up 10 US dollars / ton.
In terms of trade relations: (1) On March 8, the Ministry of International Trade and Industry of Malaysia announced on March 8 that Malaysia has added 2.66-16.13 to imported hot-dip galvanized sheet and coil from China and Vietnam. Anti-dumping duties ranging from %. The government department also stated that the above anti-dumping duties are for a period of five years, valid from March 8, 2019 to March 7, 2024; (2) The Australian Anti-Dumping Committee issued Circular No. 2019/26, stating that its domestic enterprise Galintel PtyLtd Application for an anti-dumping investigation on imported SolidBaseAngle products from China. The dumping investigation period of this case is the whole year of 2018, and the damage investigation period begins on January 1, 2015. According to the investigation procedure announced by the Australian side, stakeholders should submit relevant materials by April 4, 2019. The Australian Anti-Dumping Committee is expected to make a preliminary ruling 60 days after the filing of the case and a final ruling on June 17.
Short test: Based on the fundamentals of the Asian and Chinese markets, it is predicted that the Asian steel market will continue to rise slightly in the near future.