First, steel output has continued to grow. Since the beginning of this year, the state has stepped up infrastructure construction, real estate investment has maintained a high growth rate, driving demand for steel, and steel production has continued to grow. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to October, the country ’s crude steel output was 829 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%; pig iron output was 675 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%; steel output was 1.01 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%. The increase was higher than the same period last year. Under the influence of seasonal factors such as cold weather, real estate and infrastructure construction are expected to be affected in the later period, and steel demand will decrease. It is estimated that China's annual crude steel output will reach 980 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7%.
Second, the demand in the international market has weakened, and the volume of imports and exports of steel products has decreased. In 2019, international market trade friction and trade protection increase, steel demand is relatively weak, and China's steel import and export volume has decreased. According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs, from January to November, China imported 10.82 million tons of steel products, a year-on-year decrease of 11%; exports of steel products reached 59.66 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5%, and both imports and exports showed a downward trend. It is estimated that 65 million tons of steel products will be exported throughout the year, a year-on-year decrease of 6%; and 12 million tons of steel imports will be a year-on-year decrease of 9%.
Third, steel prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Since the beginning of this year, due to the rapid growth in output, the domestic steel market has generally shown a weak balance and the price of steel has declined slightly. According to the monitoring data of the Steel Association, from January to November, the average price index of steel was 108.16 points, a year-on-year decrease of 7.29 points, a decrease of 6.3%. Among them, the decline in long products was 5.54%, and the decline in sheet materials was 7.18%. The market showed the characteristics of "weak and strong plates".
Fourth, costs have risen sharply, and industry profits have fallen year-on-year. Since the beginning of this year, due to the sharp rise in the price of imported iron ore, high fluctuations in the prices of raw materials such as coal, coke and scrap steel, as well as the increase in environmental protection costs, the cost of steel companies has risen sharply and benefits have declined. According to statistics from the Steel Association, from January to October, the sales revenue of member companies reached 3.54 trillion yuan, an increase of 11% year-on-year; the total profit reached 158.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 34% year-on-year.
Fifth, investment in fixed assets kept growing. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that from January to October, the fixed asset investment in the black smelting and rolling industry in the country increased by 29.2% year-on-year, 0.3 percentage points higher than the growth rate in the period from January to September; %, The growth rate changes from negative to positive. Previously, the growth rate from January to September fell by 2.5% year-on-year.